2024-08-16 19:18

What is EV in Bets?

In the world of sports betting, there's a strategic approach that goes beyond mere intuition and gut feeling. It's called EV betting, and it's all about using mathematical calculations to identify profitable opportunities and maximize your winnings.

What is it?

EV, or Expected Value, is a crucial concept in sports betting that helps bettors assess the potential value of a bet. It's the difference between the odds offered by the sportsbook and the odds that the bettor believes are accurate. Essentially, it's a way to determine if a bet is worth taking based on its potential profitability in the long run.

EV betting relies on statistical analysis and data to identify bets that offer a positive expected value. By focusing on these bets, bettors can increase their chances of making a profit over time, even if individual bets don't always win.

Importance

Informed Decision-Making: EV betting tools enable bettors to compare their own estimated winning probabilities with the odds offered by sportsbooks. This allows for more strategic and data-driven decisions, reducing reliance on gut feelings or emotional biases.

Long-Term Profitability: Consistently placing bets with a positive expected value increases the likelihood of long-term profitability. Over time, the winnings from these EV bets will outweigh any losses, providing a sustainable approach to betting.

Risk Mitigation: The analytical nature of EV betting reduces the risk of significant losses. By focusing on bets with a positive expected value and employing disciplined bankroll management, bettors can minimize their exposure to unnecessary risks.

How does it work?

Calculating Probability

Leveraging statistical analysis, expert insights, historical data, and other relevant factors, the probability of a bet winning is calculated and expressed as a decimal. For example, a 40% chance of winning translates to 0.40.

Probability and Odds

EV betting, a key strategy in sports wagering, empowers bettors to gauge the potential success of their bets. This method involves comparing the probability of an outcome, assessed using various factors, to the odds offered by the bookmaker. Bettors consider not only the odds but also their potential profit margins.

Evaluating Odds

The odds presented by the bookmaker, which can be in fractional, decimal, or moneyline format, are then taken into account. Decimal odds are the most widely used.

Profit

With the expected value calculated, potential profits are determined using the odds and the amount wagered. An EV betting software typically calculates profits as:

Potential Profits = (Odds - 1) x Amount Bet

Calculating EV

Finally, the expected value (EV) is calculated using the following formula:

EV = (Probability of Winning x Potential Profits) - (Probability of Losing x Amount Bet)

Example

Let's take a football match between Team A and Team B as an example. You're placing a $100 wager on Team A to win, with the odds set at 2.00. You've analyzed the game and believe Team A has a 55% chance of victory.

This translates to:

Winning probability: 0.55
Losing probability: 0.45

We also have:

Odds: 2.00
Bet amount: $100

Now, let's figure out the potential profit and expected value (EV).

Potential profit = (Odds - 1) * Bet amount
Potential profit = (2.00 - 1) * $100
Potential profit = $100

Finally, let's calculate the Expected Value (EV):

EV = (Probability of Winning * Potential Profits) - (Probability of Losing * Amount Bet)
EV = (0.55 * $100) - (0.45 * $100)
EV = +$10

A positive EV of +$10 suggests that this bet is likely to be profitable over the long term.

EV Betting Software Development

For bookmakers, ensuring the security and reliability of their positive EV betting software is paramount. While bettors focus on positive EV, factors like fluctuating odds and platform performance can influence outcomes. Both operators and users need to understand, manage, and minimize potential risks.

Bettors seek EV sports betting software that provides comprehensive management of betting activities and data. Features like real-time odds, data-driven insights, reporting tools, statistical management, and user-friendly dashboards are crucial for attracting and retaining users.

Bookmakers need to actively engage bettors and encourage them to return to the platform. EV betting platforms should include robust CMS and user engagement tools that deliver timely notifications, announcements, limited-time offers, and other relevant information to keep users informed and interested.

What's the next step?

At BCraft, we're ready to tackle betting platform projects of any complexity. Our team is dedicated to providing end-to-end support, from concept to launch and beyond. Leverage our extensive library of 50+ pre-built templates and 20+ language options to accelerate your time to market.

Customization: We tailor every platform to your unique brand and vision.

Scalability: Our solutions are built to grow with your business.

Innovation: Stay ahead of the curve with cutting-edge features and technologies.

Proven experience: We have successfully implemented many betting platforms in Latin America, Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

Let's build your betting platform together. Contact BCraft today!